A comprehensive guide to all the stats, metrics, and betting concepts used in Hatersville Insights Alpha Model.
Expected Points Added measures the value a team adds on each play. It compares the expected points before and after a play, accounting for field position, down, and distance. A positive EPA means the offense improved their scoring opportunity.
Example: A team with +0.15 EPA/Play gains about 1.5 extra points per 10 plays compared to league average.
DVOA compares a team's performance on each play to a league-average baseline, adjusting for opponent strength, situation, and game context. Positive DVOA is good for offense, negative is good for defense.
Example: A team with +15% offensive DVOA is 15% more efficient than the average NFL offense.
The percentage of drives inside the opponent's 20-yard line that result in touchdowns. This metric measures a team's ability to finish drives with maximum points.
Example: A 65% red zone TD rate means the team scores touchdowns on about 2 out of every 3 trips inside the 20.
The percentage of plays that gain 20+ yards (passing) or 10+ yards (rushing). Teams with high explosive play rates can score quickly and overcome bad field position.
Example: An 8% explosive play rate means roughly 1 in 12 plays is a big gain.
The percentage of plays where the defense creates a tackle for loss, sack, interception, or forced fumble. It measures a defense's ability to disrupt the opponent's offense.
Example: A 12% havoc rate means the defense disrupts 1 in 8 plays.
American-style betting odds showing how much you need to bet (negative odds) or can win (positive odds) on a $100 wager. Negative numbers indicate favorites, positive numbers indicate underdogs.
Example: -150 means bet $150 to win $100. +130 means bet $100 to win $130.
The number of points a favored team must win by to 'cover the spread.' If you bet on the favorite, they must win by more than the spread. If you bet the underdog, they can lose by less than the spread or win outright.
Example: Cowboys -3.5 means they must win by 4+ points to cover. Eagles +3.5 means they can lose by 3 or fewer and still win the bet.
A bet on whether the combined score of both teams will be over or under a specified number. You're betting on the total points scored, not who wins.
Example: Total is 47.5. Final score 28-24 (52 total) = Over wins. Final score 20-17 (37 total) = Under wins.
The commission the sportsbook charges, typically shown as -110 on spread and total bets. This means you must bet $110 to win $100, with the extra $10 being the house's cut.
Example: A bet at -110 odds returns $100 profit on a $110 wager (total payout $210).
A bet where the true probability of an outcome is higher than what the betting odds suggest. Finding value means the potential payout is worth more than the risk based on statistical analysis.
Example: If our model says Team A has a 60% chance to win, but Vegas odds imply only 50%, that's a value bet on Team A.
Changes in the point spread or odds over time, typically driven by betting action, injuries, or weather. Tracking line movement helps identify where sharp money (professional bettors) is going.
Example: Spread moves from -3 to -4.5 means heavy betting on the favorite, indicating sharp money may see value.
The percentage of bets and money wagered on each side of a game. Comparing ticket count vs. money can reveal if sharp bettors (large bets) disagree with the public (many small bets).
Example: 70% of tickets on Team A but only 40% of money means sharps are betting Team B.