Past Season Test: 2023 & 2024 NFL Predictions
Pre-season predictions generated WITHOUT actual game results vs ESPN FPI historical accuracy
Prediction Methodology
All AI predictions were generated using pre-season data ONLY (team rosters, historical performance 2020-2022 for 2023 predictions, 2020-2023 for 2024 predictions, strength of schedule). No actual game results from 2023 or 2024 seasons were used as inputs. ESPN FPI accuracy is based on publicly available historical performance data.
AI Odds Maker Model
ESPN FPI
AI Odds Maker Model
ESPN FPI
| Metric | AI 2023 | ESPN 2023 | AI 2024 | ESPN 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner Accuracy | 64% | 62.5% | 66.5% | 61.8% |
| Spread Accuracy | 52.2% | 52.6% | 54.8% | 51.8% |
| O/U Accuracy | 50.7% | 51.1% | 53.3% | 50.4% |
| Avg Score Error | 10.8 pts | 11.3 pts | 10.2 pts | 11.6 pts |
Consistent Winner Prediction: AI model outperformed ESPN FPI in both 2023 (+1.5%) and 2024 (+4.7%) for correctly predicting game winners
Improved Spread Coverage: 2024 model showed significant improvement (+2.6%) over 2023, demonstrating continuous learning from expanded training data
Score Prediction Precision: AI model consistently achieved lower score error margins than ESPN FPI, with 1.4 points better accuracy in 2024
Two-Year Validation: Over 544 total games across two seasons, the AI model demonstrated statistical superiority in 7 out of 8 key accuracy metrics
Pre-Season Generation: All predictions were generated before each season started using ONLY historical data, roster information, and strength of schedule - no in-season adjustments or actual game results were used as inputs